Mckinsey released a report on AI and employment on September 29th. The most shocking conclusion was not "machines taking jobs," but rather how to resettle millions of workers into new positions.

The report estimates that by 2035, about 11 million American workers may be forced to switch careers due to AI replacing their existing jobs, accounting for approximately 7% of the current workforce. It is worth noting that in the past, about 215,000 people changed careers each year in the United States. In the next decade, this number could triple.

Low-income workers are eight times more likely to be affected than high-income workers

Changing careers is not easy for many. The report mentions that six out of seven workers will need extensive retraining and face reduced income. More importantly, people are not interchangeable parts—despite the availability of new positions, if the required skills, qualifications, location, or salary do not match the previous ones, millions of people may still be left behind.

The jobs most vulnerable to this change are full-time positions in office administration, retail sales, and transportation and logistics, such as customer service representatives, cashiers, and warehouse workers. These workers generally have low incomes, and the report predicts that low-income workers are eight times more likely to be forced to switch careers than high-income workers.

Of course, Mckinsey also mentioned half of the story: the above conclusions are based on uncertain variables, such as the speed at which companies adopt AI and how technology reshapes labor demands across industries, as well as long-term trends like an aging population. Considering the uncertainties, the research team widened the final range of people who would need to switch careers to between 6 million and 16 million. In other words, the alarm has been sounded, but how the situation unfolds still depends on the actual pace over the next decade.