GS derivatives expert Brian Garret provides his outlook on the future of the US stock market. Currently, investors are generally underweight in large technology blue-chip stocks represented by the "Big Seven" tech companies, with funds shifting towards sectors such as semiconductors that directly benefit from the expansion of the AI industry.

In recent times, the seven major technology leaders have generally underperformed the overall market, and combined with concerns about their substantial AI investments not being quickly translated into profits, this has prompted institutions to adopt a cautious strategy of reducing positions.

Options market data directly reflects the market's risk-averse sentiment. The cost of downside hedging for the State Street QQQ ETF, which tracks the Nasdaq, has significantly exceeded the hedging cost for small-cap stocks. Goldman Sachs states that only if ultra-large-scale data center businesses show stronger profit growth will the market possibly regain confidence in leading technology companies; otherwise, the underweight position will continue.

In June this year, Goldman Sachs CEO had stated that as long as market confidence remains stable, the AI boom will continue to drive the stock market upward. Driven by market volatility and related trading demand fueled by AI, Goldman Sachs achieved $17 billion in profits last year, and institutional analysts predict that performance could see another harvest this year.