Artificial intelligence (AI) has been rapidly developing in today's society, sparking widespread discussions, especially regarding its impact on the job market. Recently, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) collaborated on a research project called "Iceberg Project," aiming to simulate the potential impact of AI on the U.S. job market. By building a digital model, researchers assessed the possible share of AI in the labor market.

In this project, the research team used ORNL's supercomputer to simulate AI-driven labor forces and compared them with data from 151 million actual workers in the United States. The experiment revealed that AI could theoretically cover 11.7% of the U.S. labor market, particularly in fields such as finance, healthcare, and professional services, with an estimated impact on total wages reaching $1.2 trillion.

To conduct a deeper analysis, researchers examined the skills, task assignments, and geographic distribution of U.S. workers. Their model covered more than 32,000 professional skills and 923 types of occupations across over 3,000 counties, assessing whether AI could handle these skills and tasks. Although the research team pointed out that the Iceberg Index cannot precisely predict future employment changes, it provides forward-looking insights for policymakers, helping local governments make more informed decisions before investing in retraining or infrastructure development.

The effectiveness of the Iceberg Index is reflected in its ability to specifically describe the replacement of human jobs in various counties and even census tracts. This study has also received support from Senator DeAndrea Salvador of North Carolina, who believes that the project can be used to test different scenarios of AI involvement in employment.

Currently, although predictions about AI's impact on the job market remain uncertain, more and more companies have found that after trying to replace employees with AI, they still need to rehire original workers. Additionally, both parties in the U.S. Congress are pushing for a bill requiring companies to disclose information about jobs replaced by AI, to enhance transparency.

Key Points:

💼 AI could theoretically replace 11% of jobs in the United States, affecting total wages of $1.2 trillion.  

🔍 The Iceberg project simulated the comparison of AI skills with 151 million workers, providing references for policy-making.  

📊 The study aims to help local governments develop effective training and re-employment strategies in the face of AI impact.