Flow Festival: The "Entry Point" Battle Behind 8 Billion Yuan in Red Envelopes

In the Year of the Horse in 2026, the domestic AI industry witnessed the largest "Red Envelope War" in history. Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, and Baidu collectively invested over 8 billion yuan, far exceeding the mobile payment war ten years ago. The core of this battle was no longer about "binding cards," but rather competing for the "super entry point" position in the era of large models.

According to QuestMobile data, by December 2025, the monthly active users (MAU) of mobile AI applications, AI assistants from phone manufacturers, and PC AI applications had surpassed 722 million, 559 million, and 205 million, respectively. During the Spring Festival, the giants pushed this technological competition to the peak of mass popularization through CCTV Spring Festival Gala sponsorships, social viral marketing, and free shopping promotions.

War Review: Doubao Rises to the Top, Qianwen Stabilizes, Yuanshi Falls Back

During the Spring Festival, the daily active users (DAU) of major AI apps reached record highs, but their retention rates showed completely different trends after the holiday:

Doubao (ByteDance): Thanks to its exclusive AI partnership with the CCTV Spring Festival Gala, DAU reached a historical peak of 145 million on New Year's Eve, with a total of 1.9 billion AI interactions on that night. Although traffic dropped sharply after the holiday, the user base remained structurally higher than before the event.

Tongyi Qianwen (Alibaba): Through the "Spring Festival Banquet Plan" and a 3 billion yuan subsidy, Qianwen's DAU increased by up to 940%, peaking at 7.352 million. Its performance was the most stable, with DAU remaining around 4 million after the holiday. Notably, part of its retention strength came from extending the validity of coupons until March 3rd; however, real stickiness remains to be tested after the coupon period ends.

Yuanshi (Tencent): Leveraging WeChat's social viral marketing, Yuanshi's DAU on New Year's Eve rose to 40.54 million and achieved explosive growth in group chat red envelope scenarios. However, as the holiday ended, Yuanshi's activity level dropped significantly, almost returning to pre-marketing levels.

Deep Reflection: The "Necessity" Test After the Red Envelope Tide Subsides

Although the red envelope war temporarily boosted the penetration rate of AI applications, an industry consensus is forming: simply "distributing money" is difficult to build long-term competitive advantages.

Currently, Doubao wins in traffic scale and awareness in the lower-tier markets, Qianwen has validated the feasibility of AI driving transactions through "one-sentence orders," while Yuanshi has initially positioned itself in social scenarios. However, how to convert "opportunistic users" who take advantage of the red envelopes into "indispensable" users remains the ultimate challenge for the big players. AI applications must evolve from "fun toys" to "high-value tools" by deeply integrating into core scenarios such as work, study, and consumption, so they can truly stand firm after the tide of traffic recedes.

Would you like me to compare the latest rankings of various AI apps on the App Store after the 2026 Spring Festival, or to conduct an in-depth analysis of the commercial conversion rate behind Alibaba's "one-sentence order" feature?