Despite investing astronomical amounts of money in the AI field, the latest financial data reveals a somewhat awkward reality: in front of a massive user base, the number of users willing to pay for AI remains extremely small. According to recent reports, among users who have accessed Copilot Chat and Microsoft 365 and Office 365, the actual payment rate is only 3.3%.

At the recent Q2 fiscal year 2026 earnings call, Microsoft showcased an exceptionally impressive "performance" — the paid seats for Microsoft 365 Copilot have reached 15 million, growing by more than 160% year-over-year. CEO Satya Nadella even optimistically stated that Copilot is becoming a "daily habit" for users, with daily active users increasing tenfold. However, analysts point out that compared to Microsoft's vast commercial user base of 450 million, these 15 million paying users seem rather insignificant.

Currently, Microsoft faces the challenge of converting a large number of free trial users into paying customers. To cover the huge costs of AI R&D and computing power, Microsoft invested as much as $37.5 billion this quarter. Although CFO Amy Hood emphasized that this expenditure should not be measured solely by short-term revenue, and that it is laying the groundwork for long-term ecological value, the market still has doubts about such a significant investment-to-output ratio.

Meanwhile, Microsoft seems to be re-evaluating its AI implementation strategy internally. It has been reported that the company is assessing whether to scale back some AI features with low usage rates in Windows 11. For this tech giant, the long race of AI has just begun, and how to shift users from "finding it fun" to "willingly paying for it" will be its most critical challenge ahead.

Key points:

  • 📉 Conversion Bottleneck: Despite having 450 million commercial users, Microsoft 365's actual payment conversion rate for Copilot is only around 3.3%, which contrasts with the huge R&D investments.

  • 💰 Heavy Bet: Microsoft's capital expenditure on AI-related areas reached as high as $37.5 billion in one quarter. Executives emphasize that long-term value should be focused on, rather than short-term returns.

  • 🔄 Strategy Adjustment: Under pressure from slow payment growth, Microsoft is planning to streamline some built-in AI features in the system to better capture users' core needs.