To open up new sources of funding for its massive operational costs, OpenAI has recently started testing ads in its chatbot and set a goal of $2.5 billion in ad revenue this year and $100 billion by 2030. However, the latest research from the authoritative analytics firm eMarketer indicates that this ambitious forecast may be difficult to achieve on schedule due to the actual market capacity.

The study shows that by 2030, the total size of the independent chatbot advertising market is expected to reach only $5.4 billion, meaning that OpenAI's ad revenue at that time could fall short by as much as 90%. Although the industry trend has completely reversed, and CEO Sam Altman once called ads "a last resort," the reality of the market has still poured cold water on the commercial prospects of the AI giant.

Limitations of the Advertising Market Potential and High Computing Costs Pose Severe Challenges

Analysts believe that although the broader AI search advertising market has promising prospects, most of the funds will remain outside of independent conversations and are unlikely to be directly converted into chatbot revenue. Unless advertisers completely abandon traditional search engines and shift to robot experiences, and OpenAI fully wins in the fierce competition, the $100 billion target is highly unlikely to be achieved.

At the same time, OpenAI plans to spend up to $600 billion on computing power before 2030, creating a huge financial gap that makes it urgently necessary to find a feasible "money-printing" model. Although investors like Masayoshi Son remain willing to make large bets, before the economic model is truly proven, how to balance the huge expenses with actual advertising revenue will be the biggest challenge.