A traffic frenzy about "AI-generated真人 short dramas" is about to bring a major market shake-up in May 2026.

Recently, with the news that Hongguo Short Drama has canceled its AI-generated真人 drama guaranteed policy, the industry has been shaken. Several industry insiders have confirmed that Hongguo has shifted its cooperation model for AI short dramas from "guaranteed + revenue sharing" to "pure revenue sharing (about 20%)." This means that the "guaranteed milk" that once allowed many small studios to rise has officially stopped being provided.

The real logic behind the market data: the trend shifts from "rapid growth" to "loss control"

This change in the short drama market was not unexpected, and the evolution of market data clearly shows the process from capital-driven growth to a return to rationality:

  • The peak of traffic consumption: Since 2026, the share of AI short dramas in the overall market has risen sharply. In January, AI-generated真人 performances accounted for only 5% of the total, but by May, it had exceeded 70%.

  • Reversal on the supply side: In stark contrast to the surge in short drama consumption, the number of new真人 short dramas has been halved: the number of new真人 short dramas dropped from 17,000 in October 2025 to just over 1,000 in May this year.

  • Platform's inevitable considerations: Although the daily spending on AI short dramas once exceeded 100 million, their hit rate has remained below 1% for a long time. After completing the strategic tasks of traffic acquisition and ecosystem building, platforms now face high subsidy costs and low conversion efficiency. It has become inevitable to cut losses and shift focus to profitability.

Shift in direction: From "AI quantity growth" to "realistic high-quality production"

If Hongguo's cancellation of guarantees is a sign of cooling down for AI short dramas, then the actions of the National Radio and Television Administration have pointed the way for the entire industry.

At the work deployment and promotion meeting for the "Excellent Creation and Dissemination Plan for Micro-Short Dramas" held on May 14, the official clearly stated that 1,000 excellent micro-short dramas will be launched in 2026. To support this transformation, six platforms including Douyin (Hongguo Short Drama), Tencent Video, Mango TV, Migu, Kuaishou, and Dianzhong have clearly committed to investing at least 6 billion yuan to support high-quality真人 short dramas.

In particular, Douyin Group announced that it will invest more than 1.5 billion yuan in supporting真人 short dramas this year, with the average guaranteed amount per project increasing by about 60% compared to last year.

New industry landscape: Eliminating inferior capacity, high quality becomes the "only ticket"

The short drama industry is currently undergoing a painful transition from "wild growth" to "high-quality industrialization":

  1. Smaller studios face compressed survival space: With reduced platform bargaining power and traffic concentrated on the top, small production companies without core content creation capabilities will face restructuring.

  2. Differentiated content competition: Giants like Tencent are investing heavily (such as exclusive cooperation agreements worth tens of millions) to lock in top producers, aiming to achieve differentiated breakthroughs through top-tier content.

  3. High quality is the only survival logic: Industry insiders generally believe that short dramas are not ending, but rather the era of "low-quality traffic dramas" is coming to an end. In the future, only content that deeply integrates technological innovation and deep storytelling, and can create high resonance with audiences, will be able to gain sustained benefits under the new traffic rules.

In summary, the AI short drama boom is slowing down, and the industry is officially entering a deep development phase focused on content and high-quality production. For professionals, the period of low barriers to entry based on AI cost reduction and efficiency enhancement has become a thing of the past.