Anthropic's CEO Dario Amodei gave an in-depth analysis of the current economic situation and potential risks in the artificial intelligence industry at the New York Times DealBook Summit on Wednesday, subtly criticizing an unnamed competitor (clearly referring to OpenAI) for its aggressive expansion strategy.

Complex Bubble Risks and "Wrong Timing"

Regarding the question of whether there is a bubble in the AI industry, Amodei refused to give a simple yes or no answer, instead characterizing it as a complex economic game. He stated that while he remains optimistic about the potential of the technology, he warned that some participants in the ecosystem may face "wrong timing" or "bad things".

Amodei emphasized that the risk stems from the uncertainty of when economic value will be realized. He pointed out that companies must take risks to compete with peers and even authoritarian rivals (implying the competitive threat from China), but he was concerned that some companies were not managing this risk well, instead taking unwise risks.

The core issue lies in appropriately matching the uncertainty of AI economic growth speed with the lag time required to build data centers.

Anthropic, Claude

Subtle Criticism of "YOLO" Risk Management

Amodei warned: "I think some players are 'going all in,' pushing risks too high, and I'm very worried about that." He used the slang term "YOLO" ("Life is short, have fun") to describe this risky behavior, and further stated that those taking more risks—especially "if you're naturally inclined to 'YOLO' or like big numbers"—might overexpand, which is seen as a subtle reference to Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI.

The context of these remarks is that last month, OpenAI's Chief Financial Officer sparked a PR crisis by suggesting that the U.S. government should "guarantee" its infrastructure loans, implying that taxpayers would bear the risk.

Amodei pledged that Anthropic is doing its best to handle this dilemma responsibly, stating, "We believe that basically in almost all aspects, we can cope... I can't speak for other companies."

Chip Obsolescence and Revenue Projections: Beware of Over-Optimism

Amodei also discussed another hot topic affecting the industry's economic impact: the timeline for AI chip obsolescence. He noted that the lifespan of chips is long, but "newer chips are faster and cheaper... so the value of older chips might decline," leading to premature GPU obsolescence and loss of value, negatively impacting the industry's economy. Anthropic has also adopted conservative assumptions in planning for the future in this regard.

Speaking about company revenue, the CEO revealed that Anthropic's revenue has grown 10 times each year over the past three years and is expected to reach between 8 billion and 10 billion dollars by the end of this year. However, he warned that assuming this trend will continue is "too foolish."

"I don't know if it will be 20 billion or 50 billion in a year... It's very uncertain. I try to make conservative plans, so I plan based on lower expectations, but it's still very unsettling."

AI companies must plan for computing power needs and data center investments over the next few years: under-investing may fail to serve customers; over-investing may be difficult to manage costs and could even lead to bankruptcy. Amodei emphasized that conservative planning is key to preparing for an uncertain future.